On October 15, the Ministry of Ecology and Environment officially issued the 2027 quota scheme for Ozone Depleting Substances (ODS) and Hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs). This is the third annual quota document of China in fulfilling its obligations under the Kigali Amendment to the Montreal Protocol. The scheme clarifies that the total production quota of HFCs for 2027 remains locked at the baseline value of 1.853 billion tons of CO₂ equivalent, achieving "zero growth" for the second consecutive year, sending a strong signal of supply constraints.
Looking at the core data, the total production quota of HFCs for 2027 is 1.853 billion tCO₂e, with an internal use quota of 895 million tCO₂e and an import quota of 10 million tCO₂e. All three indicators are consistent with those of 2026. The total production quota of HCFCs remains at 151,416 tons, exactly the same as the previous year. Notably, the scheme allocates an additional 150 tons of special quota for HFC-236fa to the semiconductor industry, reflecting precise support for strategic emerging industries.
In terms of the adjustment mechanism, the scheme establishes a one-way adjustment rule of "only in, not out" for HFC-245fa (pentafluoropropane), allowing enterprises to transfer quotas into this variety but prohibiting transfers out. The upper limit of transfer is raised from 30% of the previous year to 50%, making it the only variety with relaxed adjustment conditions this year. This policy guides the concentration of refrigerant resources in emerging demand areas such as high-temperature heat pumps and data center liquid cooling.
The phase-out process of HCFCs is accelerating simultaneously. According to the scheme, by 2030, HCFCs production will be reduced to 97.5% of the baseline level, and consumption to 97.8%. Since January 1, 2026, the production and use of multi-split air conditioners using R22 refrigerant have been prohibited. In the household refrigeration field, the market share of R600a (isobutane) has exceeded 99%, and the hydrocarbon working fluid alternative route is basically completed. This means that the phase-out of chlorine-containing refrigerants is penetrating from the industrial field to all scenarios including commercial and household use.
From the perspective of industry impact, the HFCs quota remains locked at the baseline value for two consecutive years, further consolidating the supply-side pattern, and the refrigerant price center is expected to remain stable. Meanwhile, natural working fluids such as CO₂ (R-744) and NH₃ (R-717) are not subject to quota control at all, and will gain more market space under policy constraints. Hydrocarbon working fluids like R290 and R600a are also outside the quota system, and have already had mature application foundations in the small commercial refrigeration field.
For cold storage construction and operators, the current is a key time point to evaluate the working fluid selection of refrigeration systems. New cold storage projects should prioritize evaluating natural working fluid schemes such as CO₂/NH₃ cascade systems to avoid future refrigerant acquisition difficulties caused by quota tightening. Existing HFCs cold storages need to plan refrigerant alternative paths in advance, use the quota adjustment window to complete the working fluid transition, and reduce future operating costs and compliance risks.
