The third quarter of 2026 has come to an end, and the refrigerant market delivered a performance of "reduced volume but stable prices". Supported by the rigid constraints on HFCs production quotas and the renewed increase in long-term contract prices in the fourth quarter, prices of mainstream refrigerants continue to operate at high levels: R32 is quoted at 64,500–65,500 yuan/ton, R134a at 64,000–65,000 yuan/ton with tight spot supply, R125 at 55,000–60,000 yuan/ton, and R410A at 59,500–60,000 yuan/ton; R404A and R507, commonly used in cold storage, are quoted at 54,000–55,000 yuan/ton and 52,500–54,000 yuan/ton respectively. The only refrigerant with a noticeable weak trend is R22, whose spot price is 18,000–23,000 yuan/ton, with demand concentrated in after-sales maintenance, mostly in scattered small orders.
Quotas are the strongest "floor" for this round of price movements. The total HFCs production quota for 2026, verified by the Ministry of Ecology and Environment, is 1.853 billion tCO2e, the same as that of 2025; among the secondary quota adjustments for 19 enterprises announced in October, R32 production quota was reduced by 8,108 tons, R125 by 9,574 tons, with a net total reduction of 1,141 tons. With no increase in total volume and optimized structure, it is difficult for the supply side to lower prices through increased volume. According to the published schedule, the production of R22 multi-split (heat pump) units will be banned in China from January 1, 2027, accelerating the phase-out of HCFCs.
Cold storage integrated condensing unit: The working medium circulates within the unit and pipelines, and the charging amount needs to be calculated according to the temperature zone
Overseas compliance pressures are tightening in tandem. The EU F-gas Regulation clearly stipulates that GWP150 refrigerants shall be prohibited for split air-source heat pumps below 12kW from January 1, 2027; the EU HFC quota will be nearly halved from 2027. For refrigeration equipment and cold storage engineering enterprises engaged in export business, the choice of working medium is no longer just a cost issue, but an access issue.
For the cold storage industry, the impact of this round of changes falls on two aspects: first, initial installation cost, as R404A, R507 and similar refrigerants are widely used in freezers, the rise in unit price directly increases the unit charging cost; second, operation and maintenance cost, the unit price of refrigerant replenishment for leaks has risen, which is most noticeable in old warehouses with high leakage rates. The rational approach is to calculate the full life cycle cost: accurately calculate the charging amount according to temperature zones and loads during the design phase, reduce unnecessary pipeline length and joints; conduct thorough leak detection, vacuuming and drying during the construction phase; establish a refrigerant ledger during the operation phase, conduct regular leak detection, and recycle equipment in accordance with specifications when it is retired, instead of venting directly.
Ceiling-mounted cold air blowers and insulated pipelines in the warehouse: Joints and welds are key areas for leak detection
Guizhou Hongya Glacier Refrigeration Equipment Co., Ltd. will match system schemes according to storage categories, temperature zones and refrigerant characteristics in the cold storage design and unit configuration process, control charging amount and leakage points, and reserve space for subsequent refrigerant switching and equipment upgrading for customers.
The industry expects that the pattern of no increase in total quota and the structure tilting towards low GWP will not change in the short term, and refrigerant prices will likely continue to fluctuate at high levels and differentiate among varieties. For cold storage customers, calculating the refrigerant and energy efficiency clearly one step earlier is more cost-effective than chasing refrigerant replenishment afterwards.
Guizhou Hongya Glacier Refrigeration Equipment Co., Ltd.
2026-10-28
